How should we approach the development of cyber-policy and infrastructure given the “short arm” of predictive knowledge?

Hailey Caram

Jonas (1973) discusses the “short arm” of predictive knowledge, the idea that humans cannot predict the full impacts or the future of technology, even as technology continues to advance. Even experts in the cyber field are not able to fully envisage the long-term effects of cyber advancements. Humans, by nature, tend to prioritize instant gratification and short-term results, rather than focusing on long-term effects. This may create a disregard for long-term consequences, particularly long-term consequences of the development of cyber-policy and infrastructure. 

The unpredictability of technology mandates that cyber-policy and infrastructure must be approached with a strong ethical code, caution, and accountability. The development of cyber-policy has far-reaching effects, and policies that do not account for the short arm of predictive knowledge have the potential to negatively impact large groups of people. Developing better infrastructure and cyber-policies that protect the public are crucial for the future of technology advancement. Due to technology’s unpredictability, adaptability and ethics must be prioritized for cyber-policy. One example of adaptability and ethics in cyber-policy includes data confidentiality and caution when handling sensitive information. 

In addition, the short arm of predictive knowledge suggests that the development of cyber-policy and infrastructure must also prioritize reflection and continuous learning. This ensures that cyber disciplinarians continue to promote ethical policies which will result in positive long-term consequences. The failure to prioritize self-reflection and continuous learning increases risk for unethical or closed-minded responses to threats and vulnerabilities. Reflection and learning should span across disciplines, allowing for collaboration and feedback from interdisciplinary professionals. 

References

Jonas, H. (1973). Technology and responsibility: Reflections on the new task of ethics. Social Research, 40(1), 37-47. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dKlGHK3DuQ-eISAUw4h58rb0kOi7uDbO/view